''Why Exxon Is More Interested In The Caspian Than The Gulf Of Mexico''

From StratRisks

''We all know the story. Analyst goes to a far flung location; said analyst gets told farfetched stories about potential investors coming into the region. ‘Take it as gospel, honest guv. It’s a dead cert’. Normally you forget this stuff 10,000 feet above sea level on your flight back home. By the time you’re a couple of G&T’s down, it’s all a distant memory. That was my first hunch after hearing interesting stories in Azerbaijan for the past few days, but the rumours might have some credible clout given they are coming directly from SOCAR, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan.

The assertion: Exxon is coming into Azerbaijan, and expect it to be big in Baku.''

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''The Great Caspian Arms Race''

From 'There are no Sunglasses'

''While the world focuses on the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran, a little-noticed arms buildup has been taking place to Iran’s north, among the ex-Soviet states bordering the Caspian. Twenty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union created three new states on the sea, their boundaries have still not been delineated. And with rich oil and natural gas fields in those contested waters, the new countries — Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan — are using their newfound riches to protect the source of that wealth. So they’re building new navies from scratch, while the two bigger powers, Russia and Iran, are strengthening the navies they already have. It all amounts to something that has never before been seen on the Caspian: an arms race.

The biggest reason for this buildup may be mistrust of Iran, but it’s not the only one. The smaller countries also worry about how Russia’s naval dominance allows Moscow to call the shots on their energy policies. Iran and Russia, meanwhile, fear U.S. and European involvement in the Caspian. All of this, among countries that don’t trust each other and act with little transparency, is setting the stage for a potential conflict.''

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Caspian Basin: ''As Energy Prices Head North, Democratization Goes South''

read more.........from eurasianet......

Quiz: "Over the next three months, three former Soviet republics will hold elections – Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Russia. Whose official outcome will most closely resemble the truth?  

If you replied Russia's upcoming presidential election, you are correct, which, given the apparent scale of fraud in its December 4 Duma vote, says much about politics on the Caspian Sea oil patch: While Vladimir Putin reluctantly permitted a large election protest in Moscow – and may face more in the coming weeks – the popular will is likely to play almost no role in the voting along Russia’s southern rim. Instead, the rulers of these self-styled sultanates, courted by the West since the 1990s for their hydrocarbons and geostrategic location, will declare outsized victories for their chosen candidates, unruffled by the turbulence that has terrified petrocrats elsewhere.".  

'Caspian Sea States On Course For Naval Arms Race'

from rferl.........

"Russia's plans mark the latest episode in the militarization of the Caspian, which is either -- depending on whom you ask -- the world's biggest lake or the world's biggest inland sea. That definition, it turns out, is anything but academic. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the five countries that abut the Caspian -- Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, and the two Central Asian states of Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan -- have been sparring over how to divide it up among them.

International law regulates countries' offshore control of maritime resources differently for lakes and seas, so the slice of the Caspian's rich energy resources -- estimated by some experts to be worth $3 trillion -- that goes to each country has much to do with which interpretation wins out"..........READ MORE