"The situation, let us say, is very dynamic. How the Iran talks go in the next round in Baghdad (May 23) will impact the oil market. The EU sanction have caused an 18 percent increase in oil price — although the europeans continue to buy Iranian oil.
The IMF has warned that price may increase by up to 30 percent if Iranian supplies are disrupted. The IMF head Christine Lagarde warned of “sudden and brutal rise in the price of oil… [which] could have serious consequences on the global economy.” Curiously, Iran Oil Show, which is currently under way in Tehran, attracted 40 participants from the West despite all the talk of ‘isolating’ Iran. Iran too is anticipating a big expansion in oil and natural gas production in a near term."
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