The American Empire in a Changing World


Saturday, December 1, 2012

''Gibson's Paradox - Revisited''

From GoldSeek
By Chris Gilbert Waltzek

''While preparing for this week's Radio, my attention was drawn to a little known economic theory proposed by a British economist 90 years ago. In 1923 Alfred Herbert Gibson published a paper regarding the negative correlation between interest rates and inflation in Banker's Magazine (White, 2011). John Maynard Keynes later coined the term Gibson’s Paradox in 1930 (Keynes, 1930). Unlike his contemporaries, Keynes embraced Gibson’s finding as one of the most established and profound in the field of economics. I concur Gibson’s Paradox deserves to be recognized as an economic law, not merely a theory.

Subsequent researchers proposed that Gibson's Paradox explains much of the price movement in the gold market (Summers & Barsky, 1988). Research indicates that the gold price and real interest rates are highly negatively correlated - when rates go down, gold goes up. It has been rigorously back-tested and stands the test of time via not only theoretical evidence, but empirical research. In fact, regression analysis reveals a very high f-statistic which adds statistical support to the notion - when real interest rates are below 2%, a bull market in gold is virtually certain.''

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