"When will the U.S. economy return to full employment? No sooner than 2018, according to a new report from McKinsey — oh, and that’s the best-case scenario. Worst case, the economy produces a measly 9-10 million jobs over the rest of the decade, far short of the 21 million jobs the consulting firm estimates we need to bring unemployment down to around 5 percent by 2020.
Here’s how that more pessimistic prognosis would show up in the U.S. labor market, McKinsey says:
It would mean further contraction in manufacturing employment, a continued wave of automation and offshoring in administrative and back-office positions and a new wave of automation in retail (for instance, more widespread adoption of self-checkout).
In short, if the economy doesn’t snap back into place, it would look a lot in nine years like it does now, only more so. Over the next five years, companies think the biggest change in their workforce will be an accelerating shift toward part-time, temporary or contract workers. (In which case, arrivederci, middle class America — it was nice while it lasted.) Other expected changes include more telecommuting, additional offshoring and outsourcing, and a greater reliance on older employees"...............LINK
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